John on August 20, 2011 at 3:56 pm
Lots of investment strategists have been asked about the chances of a double-dip recession in the past week. The Wall Street Journal did an informal poll to get a sense of the conventional wisdom.
odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%
USA Today did a similar survey:
The 39 economists polled Aug. 3-11 put the chance of another downturn at 30% — twice as high as three months ago, according to their median estimates.
I looked for recent assessments on television and found several that were higher than 30%:
Analyst Link Percentage Date
Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase http://fwd4.me/09Vk 40% Philipp Baertschi, chief equity strategist at Bank Sarasi http://fwd4.me/09Vl 50% 08-19-11
Patrick Newport, economist with IHS Global Insight http://fwd4.me/09Vq 40% 08-16-11
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. http://fwd4.me/09Vr Q: At risk?
Richard Lacaille, chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors http://fwd4.me/09Vp "chances of a double-dip in the US have increased" 08-15-11
Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist at TCW Group Inc. http://fwd4.me/09Vs "The economy is in recession as of this quarter"
Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC http://fwd4.me/09Vn "very substantial chance" 08-10-11
Robert Reich http://fwd4.me/09Vu 50% 08-05-11
Even if we avoid a technical recession no one believes we’ll have solid growth in the next year. We may just limp along with 1.0% growth for a while.
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