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Economists Rate the Chance of a Double-Dip Recession

John on August 20, 2011 at 3:56 pm

Lots of investment strategists have been asked about the chances of a double-dip recession in the past week. The Wall Street Journal did an informal poll to get a sense of the conventional wisdom.

odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%

USA Today did a similar survey:

The 39 economists polled Aug. 3-11 put the chance of another downturn at 30% — twice as high as three months ago, according to their median estimates.

I looked for recent assessments on television and found several that were higher than 30%:

AnalystLinkPercentageDate
Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chasehttp://fwd4.me/09Vk40%
Philipp Baertschi, chief equity strategist at Bank Sarasihttp://fwd4.me/09Vl50%08-19-11
Patrick Newport, economist with IHS Global Insighthttp://fwd4.me/09Vq40%08-16-11
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc.http://fwd4.me/09VrQ: At risk?
A: Definitely.
08-16-11
Richard Lacaille, chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisorshttp://fwd4.me/09Vp"chances of a double-dip in the US have increased"08-15-11
Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist at TCW Group Inc.http://fwd4.me/09Vs"The economy is in recession as of this quarter"
100%
08-10-11
Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLChttp://fwd4.me/09Vn"very substantial chance"08-10-11
Robert Reichhttp://fwd4.me/09Vu50%08-05-11

Even if we avoid a technical recession no one believes we’ll have solid growth in the next year. We may just limp along with 1.0% growth for a while.

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