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Economists Rate the Chance of a Double-Dip Recession

John on August 20, 2011 at 3:56 pm

Lots of investment strategists have been asked about the chances of a double-dip recession in the past week. The Wall Street Journal did an informal poll to get a sense of the conventional wisdom.

odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%

USA Today did a similar survey:

The 39 economists polled Aug. 3-11 put the chance of another downturn at 30% — twice as high as three months ago, according to their median estimates.

I looked for recent assessments on television and found several that were higher than 30%:

Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase
Philipp Baertschi, chief equity strategist at Bank Sarasi
Patrick Newport, economist with IHS Global Insight
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. At risk?
A: Definitely.
Richard Lacaille, chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors"chances of a double-dip in the US have increased"08-15-11
Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist at TCW Group Inc."The economy is in recession as of this quarter"
Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC"very substantial chance"08-10-11
Robert Reich

Even if we avoid a technical recession no one believes we’ll have solid growth in the next year. We may just limp along with 1.0% growth for a while.

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