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Where the Vote Stands Now

John on March 19, 2010 at 2:35 pm

Bottom line: They aren’t there yet, but they’re close. The Weekly Standard has a fresh analysis:

If the number of Democrats who flip from “yes” to “no” is greater than the number who flip from “no” to “yes,” the bill will be defeated.

Bart Stupak’s coalition of pro-life Democrats is larger than many had assumed. While Stupak has claimed to have a dozen members willing to flip from “yes” to “no,” most Democrats assumed he only had five. I think Stupak has at least nine Democrats in his coalition. Yes, I know politicians can go back on their word, but House leadership is still frantically trying to cut a deal with Stupak, which indicates they don’t have the votes.

The Stupak coalition includes:

1. Bart Stupak (Mich.)
2. Dan Lipinski (Ill.)
3. Joe Donnelly (Ind.)
4. Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.)
5. Jerry Costello (Ill.)
6. Steve Driehaus (Ohio)
7. Marion Berry (Ark.)
8. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) (He’s given mixed signals, but it would be hard to break from Donnelly/win the general Senate election while abandoning Stupak.)
9. Nick Rahall (W.V.)

It all seems to come down to one thing…does Stupak cave?

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Category: Health & Education |

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